Why Slower Price Growth Doesn’t Mean “Cheaper Homes”
Between August 2020 and August 2021, home prices surged by a record-breaking 19.8%. But by late 2021, the first signs of deceleration appeared, with year-over-year growth dipping slightly to 19.5%. Fast forward to 2025, and the landscape has shifted dramatically.
Yes, prices aren’t skyrocketing, but affordability is still at its worst point in history. Why? Because interest rates remain elevated, hovering around 6.940%, as of late May. That means even if the sticker price drops, your monthly payment might not.
Here’s Why Waiting Could Cost You More
They say the best time to buy was last year. The next best time? Right now. Here’s why:
- Lower interest rates = more buying power
- Higher rates = less home for the same monthly payment
- Waiting for prices to drop while rates rise can cost you more in the long run
What the Market’s Doing in 2025
- U.S. home prices rose just 2.4% year-over-year as of March 2025, with the median sale price now at $430,787
- Redfin reports a median price of $441,526 in May, up only 0.8% from a year earlier
- Inventory has surged 14.1% year-over-year, giving buyers more options—but not necessarily more affordability
To some buyers, this might sound like good news. But let’s break it down.
While the market hasn’t crashed, price growth has cooled significantly. According to the latest data:
- U.S. home prices rose just 3.4% year-over-year as of March 2025, down from 4% in February
- J.P. Morgan forecasts a modest 3% increase for the year overall, citing tight inventory and high mortgage rates
- CoreLogic and Redfin echo this trend, projecting continued sluggish growth or even slight declines in some markets
To some buyers, this might sound like good news. But let’s break it down.
Let’s say you’re eyeing a $900,000 home in San Diego.
Let’s say you’re eyeing a $900,000 home in San Diego. At a 4.5% interest rate, your monthly principal and interest payment on an 80% LTV loan is about $3,648.
But if you wait for prices to drop and rates climb to 7.0%, that same home now costs you $4,765 per month.
That’s a $1,100+ monthly difference—for the exact same home. Over 30 years, that’s more than $400,000 in extra interest.
The Real Cost of Rising Interest Rates (Same Home Price)
| Interest Rate | Loan Amount (80% of $900,000) | Monthly Payment (P&I) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | $720,000 | $3,648.60 |
| 5.0% | $720,000 | $3,864.03 |
| 5.5% | $720,000 | $4,083.42 |
| 6.0% | $720,000 | $4,306.76 |
| 6.5% | $720,000 | $4,534.04 |
| 7.0% | $720,000 | $4,765.25 |
Each 0.5% increase in interest rate can raise your monthly payment by roughly $200–$220 per month in this price range.
Again, That’s a $1,100+ monthly difference between 4.5% and 7.0%—for the exact same home. Over 30 years, that’s more than $400,000 in extra interest.
That’s not just a budgeting detail—it’s a shift in lifestyle, location, or even whether you qualify at all. Over 30 years, that’s tens of thousands of dollars in added cost—without gaining a single square foot.
A 2% rate increase can slash your purchasing power by over $100,000.
Double the price point, and that loss doubles too.
The Bottom Line
Prices will go back up. They always do—every 2 to 5 years. So wouldn’t you rather own a $900K home at the same monthly payment as a $740K one? Especially when it’s time to sell and that equity has grown?
If you’re serious about buying, don’t wait for the “perfect” price. Focus on the total cost of ownership—and the opportunity cost of waiting.
Need a trusted mortgage broker to run your numbers? Let’s connect. I’ve got great partners who can help you strategize for today’s market.
Don’t wait for the market to “maybe” shift in your favor—own your future now.
All quotes are based upon 3% and 3.5% interest and not considering credit or down payment. Please speak to a professional mortgage broker to get more accurate info based upon your personal finances….
Prices WILL Go back up.. every 2- 5 years, they always do. So, in the end, isn’t it better to get a $900k home at the same monthly mortgage payment as a $740K home, especially when it comes to sell it when those prices do go back up!
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