As 2025 wraps up, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering around 6.2–6.3% (mid-December Freddie Mac average). Naturally, buyers are asking: What will 2026 bring?
Experts point to modest easing, but don’t expect a return to the ultra-low 3–4% rates of recent past years. Here’s the data-driven outlook and how San Diego buyers can leverage it.
Current Rates & Recent Trends (December 2025)
- 30-Year Fixed: ~6.22% (week ending Dec 11, Freddie Mac)
- Rates dipped after recent Fed cuts but have stabilized amid economic indicators.
- San Diego jumbo loans are typically 0.25–0.5% higher due to higher median prices (~$1.05M for detached homes).
This creates a “lock or wait” dilemma for buyers weighing their next move.
2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
Forecasters generally agree on gradual improvement:
| Forecaster | 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|
| Fannie Mae / Realtor.com | 6.0–6.3% (slight drop from 2025’s 6.6%) |
| MBA / NAR | Ending 2026 around 5.9–6.1% if inflation continues cooling |
| Optimistic Scenario | Sub-6% mid-year with steady economic growth |
| Pessimistic Scenario | Stuck above 6.5% if inflation rebounds unexpectedly |
Why it matters: Even a 0.5% rate reduction on an $800K loan can save ~$300/month — significant for high-cost San Diego homes.
Lock Now or Wait for 2026?
Lock now if:
- You’re closing soon
- You’ve found a rate within your budget
- You want certainty (float-down options can help)
Wait if:
- You’re in early-stage shopping
- You can monitor trends and are comfortable adjusting strategy
San Diego Tip: With high home prices, pairing a stable rate with assistance programs can dramatically improve affordability:
- CalHFA Dream For All — up to $150K
- MyHome 3–3.5% down payment assistance
- VA / USDA zero-down loans for qualifying buyers
How 2026 Rates Impact San Diego Buyers
- Modest easing + rising inventory → more balanced market, fewer frenzies
- Price growth: Expected 2–4% (Zillow ~2.3%)
- Affordability boost: First-time buyers, military, and low-down buyers benefit most
A well-timed rate lock combined with assistance programs can make the difference between a house you can afford and one that’s out of reach.
Bottom Line: Prepare Now for 2026 Wins
Rates won’t crash, but stabilization around 6% makes buying viable—especially for buyers who work with experts familiar with locks, buydowns, and assistance programs.
If you want personalized 2026 rate scenarios or pre-approval guidance, we specialize in San Diego County, helping buyers secure the best rates and maximize assistance.
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