Fannie Mae (the Federal National Mortgage Association or FNMA) just released its forecast for rates and housing sales through 2026. Here are the key takeaways:
1. Mortgage Rates Will Stay High Longer
- Mortgage rates are expected to average 6.6% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025, remaining above 6% through 2026.
- This makes affordability more challenging for buyers and limits the number of competing buyers in the market.
- Financing options like rate buydowns and seller credit of closing costs can help alleviate some affordability pressures.
2. Home Sales Are at Historic Lows
- 2025 Forecast: Home sales are expected to remain near a 30-year low, growing just 4% from 2024 levels.
- 2026 Recovery: A significant rebound of over 17% is projected in 2026 as affordability improves and pent-up demand drives the market.
- What This Means for Sellers: Fewer transactions may result in longer selling times, particularly in areas with high inventory. However, properties priced competitively and presented well can still sell quickly.
3. Home Prices Will Increase Slowly
- Prices are projected to rise modestly:
- 2024: +5.2%
- 2025: +3.8%
- 2026: +3.6%
- This slower growth suggests buyers might not need to rush into the market, while sellers should set realistic price expectations.
4. Opportunities for Buyers
- In areas with higher inventory, buyers may find opportunities to negotiate better deals.
- If you’re looking to buy, learn about your local market and consider making offers below the asking price where inventory is high.
- Explore different financing options like FHA, VA, or rate buydowns to achieve an affordable monthly payment.
5. Opportunities for Sellers
- While the market is slower, motivated buyers still exist.
- Pricing your home competitively and ensuring it’s well-marketed can make a big difference in attracting the right buyer.
Advice for Buyers:
- If you’re planning to buy, focus on markets where inventory is high and competition is low.
- Be patient but ready to act if you find a good deal.
Advice for Sellers:
- Partner with an agent who understands local market dynamics.
- Prepare your home well and set a price that aligns with current conditions to attract serious buyers.
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