Are we finally entering the “Great Recalibration” of the Southern California housing market? In this 2026 forecast, Brad and Karen Mattonen of HomesInSDCounty break down the critical shifts every San Diego and Riverside County homeowner needs to know.
In this update, we cover:
- The 6% Tipping Point: How stabilizing mortgage rates are thawing the “lock-in effect” for sellers.
- Inventory Evolution: Why a 2.5-month supply is creating a “Neutral” market for the first time in years.
- Negotiation Power: How buyers are successfully securing repairs and credits in today’s environment.
- Pricing Forecast: What to expect for median home values across San Diego County through the rest of 2026.
Whether you’re looking to downsize using Prop 19 or looking for your first home in a shifting market, our goal is to provide the strategy you need to move with confidence.
2026: The Year of Market Recalibration The Southern California real estate landscape in 2026 is defined by a shift from the high-velocity “bidding war” era to a more sophisticated, strategy-based market. With mortgage rates stabilizing near 6.09%, the “lock-in effect” that kept many homeowners from selling over the last two years is finally beginning to thaw.
Inventory and Absorption Rates We are currently seeing approximately 3,980 active listings across San Diego County. While this remains lower than historical norms, it represents a significant increase in choice for buyers compared to the 2024-2025 cycle. The current 2.2 months of supply indicates a market that is still technically in the seller’s favor, yet “Neutral” enough to allow for standard contingencies like home inspections and appraisals to return to the negotiation table.
What This Means for Sellers For those looking to list in 2026, the strategy has shifted from “listing as-is” to “curated presentation.” Buyers in a 6% rate environment are more discerning. Leveraging programs like our $50,000 home improvement grants to handle deferred maintenance or “Zone Zero” fire safety upgrades is becoming a critical component of maximizing a home’s final sale price.
Frequently Asked Questions: SoCal Real Estate 2026
Is the San Diego housing market going to crash in 2026? Current data suggests a “recalibration” rather than a crash. With a low 2.2-month supply of inventory and rates stabilizing near 6%, demand remains resilient even as the market finds a new balance.
Should I buy now or wait for rates to drop further? While rates have dipped to 6.09%, waiting for lower rates often leads to increased competition and higher home prices. Moving now allows for more negotiation power before the spring rush.
How does Prop 19 affect my move in 2026? Prop 19 remains a powerful tool for homeowners over 55, allowing you to transfer your tax basis to a new home. This is a critical strategy for downsizing without a massive tax increase.
“The HomesInSDCounty Advantage in 2026” explaining how Brad and Karen Mattonen of HomesinSDCounty personally help clients navigate these specific trends.
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🛫 Relocating? Buying, selling, or relocating in San Diego, Riverside, Orange County—or anywhere in the U.S.?
We’ve Got You Covered—Nationwide.
We’re not just your local experts—and we don’t just work in Southern California. We’re backed by the powerhouse Coldwell Banker National Network and a handpicked team of personally vetted agents across the country. Whether you’re making a move across town or across the country, we ensure a smooth, strategic, and successful experience.
We’ll connect you with an agent we trust—not just someone in the directory.
📲 Brad & Karen Mattonen
HomesinSDCounty | Coldwell Banker West
858-518-2875 | www.homesinsdcounty.com
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